Article

The ANC is in trouble

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA

THE latest poll, commissioned by the Democratic Alliance (DA), shows the African National Congress (ANC) hemorrhaging support, with its support at less than 30%. The party got 40% of the national vote during the presidential elections last year. In response, ANC’s General Secretary, Fikile Mbalula, dismissed the poll as ‘manipulative opinion polls’  and said that the ANC has been a stabilising force in the GNU (Government of National Unity). Mbalula should know that the DA polls have proven accurate before.

This erosion of support for the ANC is hardly surprising. The economic well-being of South Africans isn’t improving. Unemployment remains staggeringly high— at 43% the expanded unemployment rate — and crime continues to rise as shown by the latest crime statistics. The country’s macroeconomic outlook is bleak.

Ten months ago, mainstream institutions projected 2% economic growth for South Africa in 2025. If you are a regular reader of this column, you know very well that I never bought into that growth projection. That level of growth is simply unattainable under current conditions. It’s a fantasy, I’ve said.

Meanwhile, the GNU appears to be in paralysis. Reports suggest it hasn’t convened in months. What a shame.

I supported the GNU a year ago, believing it could offer a path forward for the troubled South Africa. But by last April, I had already written that it was no solution to South Africa’s socioeconomic malaise. The GNU is no fix, let’s be honest to ourselves.

Yes, the stock market may be up over the past year. But markets fluctuate. So do fuel prices. These are not indicators of sustained socioeconomic progress that is needed in South Africa. We need to see the socioeconomic fundamentals improving. Pro-growth, pro-market, pro-investment policy will make that happen.

The ANC’s decline is of its own making. Its leaders should be told this truth. The party has refused to recalibrate its ideological stance over the past year of the GNU. They’ve never welcomed the DA as a significant, legitimate partner in the GNU. They’ve also refused to abandon its anti-growth policies—from the National Health Insurance (NHI) to expropriation without compensation and race-based legislation. Under the GNU, nothing has changed in the direction of policy —and nothing will.

In a desperate attempt to regain legitimacy and appeal, ANC leaders launched the so-called “National Dialogue.” But it’s too late and the “National Dialogue” is a complete waste of taxpayers’ money. And if Helen Zille runs for Johannesburg mayor in the upcoming local government elections, the ANC will suffer a major blow.

The centre-right parties – that I support since I’m a classical liberal – should capitalise on ANC’s persistent decline.

South Africa’s political landscape is still dominated by leftist parties. Unfortunate! These parties promote bad ideas that impoverish South Africa.

President Cyril Ramaphosa appears increasingly weak. Few take him seriously anymore, in my observation. It’s likely he’ll be removed as President of South Africa following the ANC’s next elective conference. When he’s gone, the ANC will sink further. He remains most popular leader in the ANC. Meaning he won’t finish his second term. I don’t see any charismatic leader to succeed Ramaphosa and reenergise the party.

The press has reported that the ANC wants to expand the GNU— to sideline the DA. That will not help the ANC. In fact, I believe the party will pay another heavy price for such an action.

Most of the parties the ANC seeks to include in the GNU are “ANC-lite” – they are aligned with ANC’s policy agenda of increased regulation, higher taxes, and socialized healthcare.

When Ramaphosa took office in 2017, I wrote that the ANC could regain its footing by embracing pro-growth reforms. I wasn’t wrong to argue such. The national reaction to Ramaphosa’s ANC presidency win was largely positive. Hence, he and his party had a chance to transform South Africa into a dynamic, low-crime economy. That opportunity was squandered.

The approaching local government elections will be critical. They will give communities an opportunity to punish the ANC. Centre-right parties must rise to the occasion as the ANC sinks. Race-baiting won’t work. Hence, if I were Herman Mashaba, leader of Action SA, I’d stop with the race-baiting nonsense. South Africans aren’t obsessed with race—they value merit and good governance, as polls consistently show.

We shouldn’t focus on social media or divisive politicians—South Africans get along well in real life. They are interacting peacefully in the market, producing, selling, and buying. Of course, leftist politicians dislike this. Remember, leftist politicians thrive on divisions.

The ANC could have salvaged its image over the past year by working with the DA. Instead, it chose ideological rigidity and hostility. Well, here we are, the party continues to pay a price.

On President Ramaphosa, he’ll be remembered as one of the weakest presidents of post-1994 South Africa. I hope the centre-right performs well in future elections and that our politics take a decisive new turn to a winning centre-right political spectrum. Thank you! PM