Article

The geopolitical role SA should play

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA

OVER the past thirty years of its democracy, South Africa has undergone transformation. The transformation has been both on domestic and foreign policies. Post-Cold War, domestic reform and new international alliances have defined a world increasingly powered by globalization and technological advancement.

When South Africa became a democracy in 1994, China was not yet a challenger to the United States (US). At the time, Beijing was still reforming itself and had not yet emerged as a global economic powerhouse. Fast forward three decades, the picture is dramatically different. China is now the world’s second-largest economy and rivals the US in technology, trade, and influence. Its rise has been accompanied by a deliberate strategy to expand its footprint across the globe.

Over the past twenty-five years, China has lent African nations billions of dollars, invested heavily in infrastructure projects, and is now Africa’s largest trading partner. Chinese involvement has reshaped African continent’s economic landscape.

Every nation—whether developed or developing—has had to reassess its foreign policy in light of China’s rise. This reassessment is continuous, as international politics evolve and the balance of power shifts. For African countries, as they are striving to escape dire poverty, the stakes are particularly high in the US-China rivalry era. Given the rivalry, the continent should aim for a geopolitical strategy that balances and stabilises Africa’s relations with both the US and China.

The critical role South Africa should play

Sub-Saharan Africa remains the poorest region in the world, and its representation in global political and economic forums is limited. How the continent positions itself amid intensifying US–China rivalry will be critical. South Africa, given its relative economic weight in the region, is well placed to help shape Africa’s collective stance in the 21st century. But to play this role effectively, Pretoria must calibrate its foreign policy with far greater care. A first step is addressing the deterioration in US–South Africa relations; South Africa cannot credibly lead Africa on global strategic questions while its own relationship with Washington is fractured.

Although the United States maintains strong relations with most African countries, its ties with South Africa have been strained. This alone signals that serious issues require resolution. Contrary to some of the more sensational claims in the media, the tensions between Washington and Pretoria stem from deeper disagreements over governance and global alignment.

Judging from President Donald Trump’s new US National Security Strategy, Washington seeks to expand collaboration and strengthen investment ties with Africa. Significant opportunities therefore exist for African states willing to engage constructively.

Still, maintaining balanced and neutral relations with both Washington and Beijing will be challenging. The United States and China are increasingly at odds, engaged in what Hoover Institution historian Sir Niall Ferguson has described as “Cold War II.”

South Africa on the lead role in Africa would be welcomed by South Africans.  Like in most democratic countries around the world, South Africans do not hold strong views on foreign policy. That would make it easier for Ramaphosa’s government to make necessary adjustments to improve relations with Washington and make South Africa leader of Africa’s balanced foreign policy with China and US.

South Africans should reflect deeply on the role they want their country to play in the 21st century. The democratic political structure allows for such reflection, and an honest debate should be facilitated as soon as possible. The debate should be initiated in the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Other African nations would welcome South Africa’s bold leadership in the African continent. A stronger, legitimate voice representing Africa on the global stage is needed. South Africa, as a vibrant and stable democracy, can be that voice.

This fresh approach to foreign policy would be a highlight of Ramaphosa’s second and last term. He does not need approval from the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC); it’s a presidential foreign policy decision.

The GNU partners useless thus far

The opposition parties serving in the GNU would likely welcome a reset in foreign policy. To be frank, non-ANC partners have been useless on foreign policy thus far.

With Trump 2.0 in the White House, the GNU should be seizing the opportunity to push for South Africa’s foreign policy reform. They should be at the forefront of the efforts to restore the broken US-South Africa relations. Since Ramaphosa is incompetent, the GNU partners could step in.

The GNU partners should be drafting an alternative proposal to present to Washington and then pressure Ramaphosa to adopt it. Such a move would be consequential. It would force the ANC to acknowledge, once again, that it no longer governs alone. It would demonstrate the true potential of coalition politics in South Africa – where diverse voices come together to shape policy in the national interest.

South Africa stands at a crossroads. The choices it makes in the coming years will determine whether it emerges as a respected leader in Africa or remains sidelined in global affairs. Africa balancing relations with the US and China is not just a diplomatic necessity—it is a strategic imperative. PM

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© PHUMLANI M. MAJOZI