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THE BRIEF: US excludes SA from next G20, new inflation expectations survey

Hello from Johannesburg,

This is the first of many weekly political economy briefs I will be writing and sharing with you. My objective is to keep you informed of my views on the fast-moving world of economics and politics – a world that has fascinated me since my high school days in KwaDukuza, KwaZulu-Natal.

I was trained in economics at Rhodes University, the University of Cape Town, the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), and the University of South Africa (UNISA). Naturally, the language I will use in these briefs will be largely economic. Basically, the weekly brief will be an intersection of economics and politics.

Two Major Political Stories of the Week

Two big political stories stood out for me this past week.

1.    South Africa’s Exclusion from the 2026 G20 Summit

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio published a Substack write-up explaining why South Africa will be excluded from the 2026 G20 Summit in Miami. What struck me was the absence of any mention of “genocide.” There is no “white genocide” in South Africa and the White House knows this. Hence, Rubio didn’t mention it in the write-up.

Rubio’s analysis of South Africa’s socioeconomic challenges and its increasingly anti-Western foreign policy was, in my view, accurate. In response, South Africa’s foreign minister, Ronald Lamola, issued a defiant reply. The exchange underscored the deterioration of US-South Africa relations.

I have repeatedly argued this year that a trade deal with the US is vital for South Africa’s economy. President Ramaphosa must secure such a deal. Negotiating with the Trump administration is essential. South Africa needs access to the US market if it is to grow rapidly.

2.    The Murder of Witness D

The second story was tragic: the murder of the Madlanga Commission’s Witness D, whose real name was Marius van der Merwe, in Brakpan. This news left me heartbroken.

Our government failed Marius. More must be done to protect witnesses in commissions of inquiry and whistleblowers. Too many whistleblowers have been murdered in grisly ways. If this trend continues, people will be too afraid to report crime and corruption. Already, there are likely many who have witnessed wrongdoing but remain silent out of fear for their lives. This is a crisis of accountability that South Africa cannot afford to ignore.

The Week Ahead: Key Economic Data

Looking ahead, several important economic indicators will be released during the week. I will be watching them closely.

South Africa’s economy remains one of the most troubled in the developing world. GDP per capita continues to decline, leaving South Africans poorer year after year. We urgently need to see improvements in macroeconomic statistics.

·  Consumer Confidence Index (Tuesday):

The FNB/BER consumer confidence index will be released. This is a crucial gauge of consumer sentiment. The index fell to -20 points in the first quarter of this year, improved to -10 in the second quarter, and dipped again to -13 in the third quarter. We hope for an upward trend in the fourth quarter.

• Inflation Expectations Survey (Friday):

The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) will release its inflation expectations survey for the fourth quarter. This survey matters because the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) considers inflation expectations when setting the repo rate. If expectations trend downward, we could see another repo rate cuts in 2026 – a move that would be welcomed by consumers.

•  Other Key Data Releases:

Retail trade sales for October, industrial production figures, and wholesale and motor trade data will also be published. Each of these indicators will provide insight into the health of South Africa’s economy. Let us hope they point to recovery rather than further decline.

South Africa stands at a difficult juncture – politically and economically. The deterioration of relations with the US, the failure to protect whistleblowers, and the persistent weakness in economic indicators all demand urgent attention.

I will continue to track these developments and share my reflections with you each week.

Have a great week ahead. PM #markets #politics #economy #macro #MajoziCommentary

Purchase Phumlani’s book, Lessons from Past Heroes, on Takealot. It will make a great Christmas gift.

© PHUMLANI M. MAJOZI