Article

The political success of Javier Milei

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA

LAST month, President Javier Milei’s political party in Argentina, La Libertad Avanza, cruised to victory in the midterm elections, winning 41% of the national vote. Ahead of the election, Milei’s supporters around the world were nervous. I was nervous – I’m Milei’s big fan.

Argentina’s market volatility over the past two months drew heavy criticism of Milei’s free‑market policies, and the polls looked unfavorable ahead of the midterm elections.

The market volatility gave Milei’s critics ammunition. They claimed it proved free market policies don’t work.

Yet before the turbulence, Milei was making significant strides with his free market reforms. He slashed yearly inflation from more than 200% to about 30%—still high, but a dramatic improvement compared to the staggering numbers he inherited upon taking office. Prolonged periods of elevated government expenditure, coupled with heavy dependence on monetary expansion and borrowing to finance budget shortfalls, had plunged Argentina into a persistent spiral of debt and inflation.

Milei also achieved the first fiscal surplus in 14 years. Poverty saw a significant drop, falling from 52.9% in early 2024 to 38.1% in the latter half of the year. According to United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), 1.7 million children have been lifted out of poverty since Milei assumed office. These are remarkable achievements, considering the economic mess he inherited. His party deserved the midterm elections victory.

Argentina was once among the wealthiest nations in the world, admired for its prosperity. But over the decades, Argentinian politicians pursued statist, anti‑growth policies that produced severe fiscal defects and eroded the country’s economic prowess.

Argentina’s decline caused by reckless policies confirms what I have long believed: most politicians focus on what is politically feasible, not on what is necessary for long‑term prosperity.

That has been Argentina’s tragic story. Milei came to power in November 2023 determined to reverse the destructive governance culture—a culture of fiscal irresponsibility that had sunk Argentina. For that, I salute him. He is one of the few politicians worldwide willing to do what must be done, rather than what is politically convenient.

During his campaign, Milei was honest and direct. He told Argentinians he would cut the size of government and scrap unnecessary departments. He told voters that fixing Argentina wouldn’t be easy. Voters rewarded his candor by giving him a chance to prove that his free-market ideas could fix Argentina.

Milei’s campaign style was smart. He sold his free‑market agenda in a bold, exciting way—symbolized by a chainsaw representing his promise to cut government spending. He made liberty feel dynamic and fun, and voters responded.

I have long believed that free‑market ideas can also win in South Africa if they are presented by the right leader, with the right communication, in the right structures, and with the right energy. South Africans are not ideologically rigid.

Polls show that South Africans care about safety, want businesses to grow, oppose race‑based politics, and resent high taxes in exchange for poor public services. These are values that align naturally with a free‑market system. The opportunity is there—we can produce our own Milei. That I believe.

With the decisive victory on October 26, Milei has been given a mandate to continue with his free-market reform agenda.

Socialists should not return to power if the goal is genuine reform in Argentina.

Investors love Milei’s free market agenda. The market volatility was not caused by his policies, but by fears that he could lose Argentina’s midterm elections and Argentina would slip back into socialism.

The volatility, particularly intensifying from September through late last month, stemmed primarily from political uncertainties surrounding President Milei’s reform agenda amid midterm legislative elections that were going to take place on the 26th of last month. A heavy defeat for Milei’s party in Buenos Aires provincial elections in early September triggered sharp selloffs, with the Merval index dropping, bonds plunging, and the peso hitting historic lows, as investors feared gridlock in Argentinian Congress could stall fiscal austerity, deregulation, and foreign exchange normalisation. The volatility peaked pre-October 26 elections but reversed dramatically after Milei’s unexpected victory. On October 27, the benchmark S&P MERVAL Index surged as much as 23% intraday before closing up approximately 21-22%, marking one of its largest single-day gains in over three decades and reversing recent declines.

The lessons for South African leaders are clear. A political leader must communicate ideas effectively and act on what is necessary to advance the country, not merely what is politically expedient. Leaders must put the interests of South Africans first, if they want to leave behind a positive, lasting legacy.

Free‑market policies work. They always work. They have been implemented successfully across the world, and there is no reason to doubt them. But they must be paired with an efficient, limited state that performs its core functions well. Milei’s political success is proof that nothing is impossible. PM

This article was first published on Politicsweb.co.za. Buy Phumlani’s book Lessons from Past Heroes here, and subscribe to his YouTube channel here.

© PHUMLANI M. MAJOZI