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Xi Jinping is bad for China
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA
I’M back this week after an exhausting exam that demanded weeks of preparation. Since wrapping it up, I’ve found myself reflecting on South African admirers of China, particularly the admirers on social media. Many of them argue that South Africa should emulate China’s economic system and praise President Xi Jinping’s leadership. I’ve often pushed back against many of their claims. Because 98% of the time, they refer to the socialist aspect of China’s governance.
There’s no denying that China’s economic transformation over the past 40 years is extraordinary. It’s a story every African leader should study closely, as it offers valuable lessons on how a nation can rise from poverty to global economic prominence. But these lessons must be applied with discernment. It’s free market policies that elevated China to formidable economic force on the global stage, not Marxist policies. It’s lessons on pro-market reform we should draw from China. The African continent must pursue economic freedom in all its sectors of the economy.
African countries consistently rank low in both political and economic freedom. The Economist’s Democracy Index highlights the weakness of democratic institutions across the African continent, while the Fraser Institute’s Index of Economic Freedom places most African countries near the bottom in economic freedom. The consequence is that Africa is the poorest continent in the world.
African leaders should emulate Deng Xiaoping’s pro-market reforms of the late 1970s. These reforms lifted millions of Chinese people out of poverty and unleashed decades of rapid economic growth. In their brilliant book titled How China Became Capitalist, Ronald Coase and Ning Wang do an excellent job of explaining how free market reforms transformed China to a powerful economic force post 1978. The reforms elevated China to one of the world’s economic giants.
Xi Jinping is bad for China
Under China’s current leader, President Xi Jinping, the pro-market momentum has slowed. Since taking office in 2013, Xi has stifled the private sector and undermined investor confidence. Political analyst and author, Fareed Zakaria, has argued that under Xi, China slipped back to Maoist politics and more state control in the economy. That is unfortunate.
In 2013, China’s economic growth was 7.7%. In the ten years before Xi came to power, China’s average economic growth was about 10%, and in the ten years after he took power, China’s average economic growth was about 6%. GDP per capita slowed under Xi.
Youth unemployment has skyrocketed under Xi. When Xi took power in 2013, China’s youth unemployment was 10%. In 2024, it was 15%. When youth unemployment reached record highs under him in 2023, he instructed the Chinese government statistics agency to stop publishing the data. China’s young people are bearing the brunt of Xi’s disastrous leadership.
Youth unemployment is not just an economic issue—it’s a social one. A generation without work is a generation at risk. Let’s hope there’ll be no youth uprising in China. Because a Chinese youth uprising would be catastrophic, especially given the authoritarian nature of the Chinese Communist Party. I don’t want to see the repeat of Tiananmen Square massacre.
Another disaster under Xi has been the collapse of China’s real estate sector, driven largely by misguided domestic policies. This sector is an important element in the Chinese economy, and its decline has had far-reaching consequences. China’s real estate sector contributes about 25% to China’s GDP when both direct and indirect effects are taken into account.
And then there’s the COVID pandemic. Xi’s handling of the COVID pandemic was harmful to China. The “zero-COVID” policy was a disaster. It prolonged lockdowns, caused public unrest, and led to economic stagnation. It revealed the repressive tendencies of a regime that prioritizes state control over compassion.
As China continues to grapple with the challenges I’ve outlined, one wonders how long Xi Jinping will remain in power. There are reports that his power is waning. The power he consolidated to an unprecedented degree over the years, positioning himself as Chinese leader for life. In 2018, Xi abolished the two-term limit for Chinese presidents, which allowed him to rule China indefinitely.
On the global stage, Xi’s major geopolitical adversary is U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has taken a hard line on China’s trade practices, escalating a trade war that pits the world’s two largest economies against each other. Since beginning his second term earlier this year, Trump has significantly raised tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. China has been retaliating. It’s been a dramatic and chaotic year on US-China trade.
In my observation, the contrast between the two leaders is stark. Trump operates within a democratic system, subject to scrutiny from the media and political opposition. Xi, by contrast, faces no such constraints. This makes Trump’s position more difficult. It makes Trump’s trade fight with China very hard. Chinese leaders have nothing to lose. They don’t care about the plight of their citizens. They can endure the pain indefinitely. Remember, it’s a repressive political system.
Despite the tensions, I hold a view that a cooperative, peaceful relationship between the U.S. and China would benefit the world. Escalating the conflict serves no one. Both nations must find a way to coexist, compete fairly, and collaborate where possible. The US-China relations are the most important relations in the 21st century.
On Xi Jinping: the man should reflect on his legacy. History has shown that markets—not socialism—are the most effective engines of prosperity. The Chinese people are ambitious, innovative, and eager to thrive. Xi should empower them, not restrain them. Currently, he’s doing a bad job. PM
This article was first published on Politicsweb.co.za. Buy Phumlani’s book Lessons from Past Heroes here, and subscribe to his YouTube channel here.
© PHUMLANI M. MAJOZI