Article

US–SA relations in the deep freeze

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA

THE African National Congress (ANC), which controls the Government of National Unity (GNU), shows no willingness to recalibrate its domestic or foreign policy to foster a functional relationship with the United States (US). That’s unfortunate. As this column has argued repeatedly, the Trump era presents a strategic opportunity for the South African government —especially as the country grapples with economic stagnation, soaring unemployment, and violent crime.

During the humiliating encounter with President Trump at the White House in May, President Cyril Ramaphosa publicly admitted his failure to combat South Africa’s crime. It was embarrassing to watch.

Ramaphosa assumed office in February 2018, when South Africa’s homicide rate stood at 35 per 100,000 people. By 2024 it was 45 per 100 000. By comparison, Kenya’s homicide rate is just 5 per 100,000. Meanwhile, economic growth during Ramaphosa’s first term averaged below 1%—well beneath the population growth rate of 1.5%.

I had hoped that by August 1, when the 30% tariff on South African exports to the U.S. was scheduled to take effect, trade negotiations would have reached a resolution. They had not.

I watched the briefing on Trump tariffs by Ministers Ronald Lamola and Parks Tau last Monday. By the end of the briefing, I was angry.

Lamola came across as both arrogant and uninformed. I was stunned when he dismissed U.S. concerns over South Africa’s foreign policy and expropriation laws as “conspiracy theories”—claiming they weren’t part of the negotiations. But why label such critical issues as conspiracies?

Anyone following current affairs knows these are central to Washington’s concerns. President Trump made them explicit in his executive order last February. If the U.S. hasn’t raised them in the formal negotiations, our government should. That our leaders haven’t as the US-South Africa situation deteriorates is irresponsible—and deserves rebuke.

Business Day’s editorial last Monday laid out Trump’s demands: a review of BEE, reversal of South Africa’s “warm relations with Iran”, and a ban on the “Kill the Boer” chant. The editorial was right—these are the issues Trump wants to talk about.

Lamola and Tau’s posture is condescending. They claim to act in South Africans’ interests, but the evidence suggests otherwise. Thousands of jobs are at stake as US-South Africa relations deteriorate, yet their approach to negotiations with the U.S. is disappointing.

Whither Now?

Lamola and Tau say they’ll continue engaging the U.S. while seeking alternative markets. That’s fine. But let’s be clear: the U.S. is a vital, robust market. Abandoning it would be a foolish trade policy.

I’ve concluded that U.S.–South Africa relations will not be restored anytime soon—certainly not within the next five years. Frankly speaking, I’ve come to this conclusion with a heartache since I want the US-South Africa relationship to work.

There is lack of domestic pressure on the ANC to rethink its foreign policy. I had hoped the DA and other non-ANC coalition partners would challenge the ANC on this front—just as they did with the VAT increase, which they successfully overturned. That was a landmark moment in our democratic history. Where is that energy now? We need it.

The absence of domestic pressure on the ANC is one reason I believe relations with the U.S. won’t improve anytime soon. The pressure would have helped.

Also, the ANC is doubling down. ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula has defiantly challenged the United States to impose sanctions on the party’s leadership, declaring that the ANC will not plead with “imperialists” seeking to undermine South Africa’s democracy.

Ramaphosa’s rhetoric after meeting Trump hasn’t shifted. He’s refused to condemn the “Kill the Boer” chant, and his DIRCO (Department of International Relations and Cooperation) ministry signed a condolences book at Iran’s embassy in Pretoria during the recent 12 Day War between Israel and Iran. Yes, they sent condolences to Iran. They should have kept quiet, in my opinion.

All of this underscores the deep divide between the two sides. The ANC is likely to play the long game—doubling down in the hope that the Democrats win the next U.S. election.

In recent years, I’ve come to appreciate the strategic importance of foreign policy. South Africans—like citizens in many countries—tend to overlook it. That’s a grave mistake. In a hyper-globalized world, foreign policy is central to national advancement.

South Africa operates within an international system. How it behaves will always matter to some nations.

In my view, it’s not South Africa that Americans have a problem with—it’s the ANC. I don’t see the situation improving anytime soon, folks. Not good! PM

This article was first published on Politicsweb.co.za. Buy Phumlani’s book Lessons from Past Heroes here, and subscribe to his YouTube channel here.

© PHUMLANI M. MAJOZI