Article
Reflections on the G20 Summit
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA
I had hoped that this year’s G20 Summit, scheduled to be held in Johannesburg this November, would offer South Africa another opportunity to shine as a developing nation in the southern tip of the African continent.
We need events like the G20 Summit — they are opportunities to market ourselves on the global stage as a viable investment destination. Given our pressing socioeconomic challenges, including sky-high unemployment rates, South Africa urgently requires more fixed investment to catalyze economic growth.
This past week, on my YouTube show, The Phumlani Majozi Show on Public Policy, I interviewed South African economist Bheki Mahlobo. One of the key insights from Bheki was that South Africa has been consistently underperforming its emerging markets peers in the last 17 years.
Currently, fixed investment in South Africa stands at about 15% of GDP. The markets that are growing at about 4% and above have a fixed investment rate in the north of 20%, Bheki said. For South Africa to achieve stronger annual growth, fixed investment as a percentage of GDP needs to rise to at least 20%.
The need for more investment in South Africa is indisputable. Hence, events like the G20 Summit are essential—not only for policy discourse but also for marketing South Africa to global capitalists.
Regrettably, this Summit arrives at a time when South Africa’s relationship with the United States—the world’s economic and military superpower—is severely strained.
In my view, the US–South Africa tensions stem from two key factors:
- President Trump’s efforts to reshape global trade, and
- Bilateral friction over South Africa’s anti-America foreign policy.
On the trade front, South Africa has very limited leverage like many other nations with whom US President Trump is resetting trade relations. What’s required is an equitable US-South Africa trade deal that satisfies both nations—an uphill task, especially as South Africa faces a looming 30% tariff on exports to the US unless a new agreement is reached by the 1st of next month. I don’t think a deal will be reached by the 1st of next month.
The second factor – on South Africa’s foreign policy – is the most important one since it could have been avoided. Rather than antagonizing the US by aligning with nations the US considers a threat to its national security, South Africa could have pursued a more balanced foreign policy. The anti-America foreign policy was a strategic choice by the ANC government—one seemingly made for political ideology rather than national interest.
As global dynamics shift in the 21st century and China challenges US dominance, America is increasingly confronting nations that appear allied with its rivals. The concern over South Africa’s closeness to Iran isn’t unique to Trump; even Democrats are concerned.
In a recent interview on my YouTube show, The Phumlani Majozi Show on Public Policy, retired US Army Colonel Chris Wyatt remarked that South Africans mistakenly believe they’re liked by the Democratic Party. In truth, the goodwill of the Democratic Party to South Africa has largely eroded too. I found Colonel’s comment revealing.
Unless our leadership adjusts its foreign policy approach, South Africa risks further isolation— and with an economy that is already among the smallest globally, it will be an ultimate loser. Honestly speaking.
It’s unfortunate that the G20 Summit is unfolding under the shadow discussed above. South Africa is now being viewed as adversarial by the US. Not good!
At G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers held in my hometown of Ballito, KwaZulu-Natal this past week, US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, did not show up. The US was represented by Michael Kaplan, the acting under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs.
Bessent also skipped last February’s G20 finance ministers’ meeting that was held in Cape Town.
The US has opted out of G20 engagements this year, citing concerns over the treatment of Afrikaners and South Africa’s Iran-aligned foreign policy.
And it remains unclear whether President Trump will come to Johannesburg for the Summit. My concern is that if the US stays away from the Summit, other nations may follow. The idea that the Summit will proceed unaffected by the absence of the US is unrealistic. Still, we must do everything we can to ensure the Summit’s success.
Many developing nations would have welcomed the chance to host the G20 Summit, especially in our continent. That this opportunity has come under South Africa’s current incompetent leadership is disheartening.
As I wrote last January, I’m opposed to the Summit’s theme. It promotes leftist ideologies – and I understand why the Trump administration is concerned about the theme.
With visionary leaders, South Africa could have used the G20 Summit platform to facilitate a debate on ideas that can uplift the Third World.
The problem in the Third World is low levels of economic output. To increase the economic output, Third World nations should fix their governance and make their nations investable. This isn’t the focus of this year’s Summit. The focus is on equity, climate change, and other redistribution ideologies. How misguided!
I believe the world is interested in Africa and that’s great—but that interest must evolve into a genuine pursuit of investment, growth, and partnership. PM
Buy Phumlani’s book Lessons from Past Heroes here, and subscribe to his YouTube channel here.
© PHUMLANI M. MAJOZI